LED lighting’s ‘best years’ will be 2013 to 2017
27 Feb 2012
Combination of market penetration with relatively high pricing will see revenues peak before saturation takes hold.
The value of the market for high-brightness LEDs used in general lighting applications will likely peak in 2017 before dropping away as the cost of the technology falls sharply.
That’s according to IMS Research market analyst Jamie Fox, who told delegates at a euroLED “market kicker” conference hosted by the Birmingham Science Park - Aston, UK, that the “best years” for LED vendors selling into the general lighting market would be 2013-2017.
Over that period, market penetration is expected to grow massively from its current unit level of only a couple of per cent, to 10% in 2014 and 25% by 2017. And although the cost of LEDs is likely to fall quickly over the next five years, that won’t be enough to hold back the value of the market for LED chips in general lighting until after 2017, Fox indicated.
But from 2018 onwards, saturation will take over and the falling prices of LEDs, combined with reduced rates of lamp replacement thanks to the long lifetime of the technology, will see the market for LEDs used in general lighting start to shrink.
The impact of that wave of adoption will also be seen in the wider lighting market. The emergence of LEDs will initially spark a period of significant growth, from around $85 billion now to $120 billion by 2017. But as lower costs and saturation kick in, that figure may then shrink back to $105 billion by the end of the decade, Fox thinks.